Today, some of the world’s largest economies (like Australia and New Zealand) are celebrating Christmas.
On Friday, Christmas will be celebrated in the rest of the Catholic world. Today and by the end of this week, activity and trading volumes in the forex market will be minimal. They (activity of traders and trading volumes) will slightly increase at the beginning of next week, but will fully recover after the New Year and, most likely, only after January 10.
The world is starting to prepare for the new year 2021. Trade and business activity is dropping significantly these days, which cannot be said for retail trade, which is entering its “golden” days, despite strict quarantine restrictions.
Accordingly, there are practically no important events and publications in the economic calendar.
The dynamics of the financial market will still be influenced by information regarding the coronavirus and Brexit. Although discussions on this issue are still ongoing, it is expected that by the end of December the parties (representatives of the EU and UK) will still sign a trade agreement. The media also reported that the British Parliament will approve the Brexit deal on December 30.
On expectations that this will take place, the pound is strengthening on Thursday. However, the long-awaited UK-EU trade agreement, which could be announced as early as this Thursday, has already largely been priced in. Therefore, this event is unlikely to lead to a strong and long-term strengthening of the pound.
For the UK economy, which remains under the pressure of severe restrictions due to the coronavirus, leaving the common market and the customs union with the EU will still be a serious test, since it implies mutual duties on many goods, customs checks and other procedures that have not existed since 1973.
Meanwhile, the dollar continued to decline on Thursday.
A trade agreement between the UK and the EU will ease geopolitical risks and the dollar could accelerate its decline if Congress and US President Donald Trump can resolve the obstacles to new stimulus measures. As you know, earlier US President Donald Trump threatened to refuse to sign the bill on stimulating the economy passed by Congress. In his opinion, it is necessary to increase the amount of direct payments to households from $ 600 to $ 2,000. By the way, Democrats, in principle, agree with Trump on this issue.
Meanwhile, quotes for oil futures on Thursday moved to decline after rising on Wednesday amid positive data from the US Department of Energy, indicating a reduction in commercial oil reserves in the country last week.
According to a report by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy, in the week of December 12-18, commercial oil reserves decreased by 562,000 barrels against the forecasted 3.1 million barrels.
At the same time, oil market participants ignored statements by the UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrui on Thursday that the UAE expects the oil market to recover in 2021, which, in his opinion, will be facilitated by the coronavirus vaccination and recovery. business activity and the global economy.
At the beginning of today’s European session, the price of Brent crude oil is declining after rising during the Asian session and reaching an intraday high near $ 51.75 a barrel. At the time of this article’s publication, Brent crude was trading near 50.80 (see chart). Technical analysis and trading recommendations).
Above the support levels 50.43, 47.91, 45.00, 46.00, the long-term positive price dynamics remains.
However, these days sharp multidirectional price fluctuations are possible in the thin market. Also, do not forget about the golden rule of the investor: “Buy on hearsay, sell on facts”…
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