Improved version of the free HMA Trend indicator (for MetaTrader 4), with new trading features.

HMA Trend is a trend indicator based on the Hull Moving Average (HMA) with two periods. HMA with a slow period determines the trend, HMA with a fast period-short-term movements and signals in the direction of the trend.

The HMA indicator changes color when you change the direction of your movement. This feature can be used to try to predict the change in the direction of the indicator, which means to predict the trend reversal.

The probability of a trend reversal is the probability of switching the direction of a slow HMA

The indicator studies the behavior of the HMA indicator throughout the history, analyzes the number of switches and the duration of each direction of the indicator, estimates the probability of a reversal of the indicator on the current bar, calculates the mathematical expectation and standard deviation, and draws statistical diagrams of the distribution series for subsequent analysis by the trader

Mathematical expectation (in the context of using the indicator) – this is the number of bars of the HMA indicator in one direction, at which the average reversal of the HMA indicator occurred on the history.

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Standard deviation (in the context of using the indicator) – the reversal of the HMA indicator is most likely to occur in the range of bars from ME-SD to ME SD (where ME is the mathematical expectation, SD is the standard deviation).

In practice, it has been observed that impulse movements most often unfold in the range of ME SD bars, and corrective movements unfold in the range of ME-SD bars.

You can use all the statistics in your Expert Advisor via indicator buffers.
See the usage example on the “Discussion” tab”

If you know that in the near future it is possible to switch the direction of a slow HMA, you will not open a trade, because the old trend has already been exhausted, and there is a high probability of a reversal or correction.

If you see that a quick HMA switch is possible in the near future, you will open a trade at the end of the corrective movement and close a profitable trade at the end of the impulse movement.

On the video there is a recording of real-time trading, demonstrating the capabilities of the indicator with explanations of all the actions performed.

You can try the demo version of the indicator here.

HMA settings – parameters of Hala indicators.

• Fast HMA period – fast HMA period.
• Slow HMA period – the period of slow HMA.
• HMA averaging method – smoothing method.
• the Frequency of signals in the trend direction – the frequency of signals in the trend direction:
• Frequent signals (by switching Fast HMA) – frequent signals for switching fast HMA to slow HMA.
• Rare signals (by switching Slow HMA)) – rare signals for switching slow HMA.
• Arrows of signals in main window-draw arrows of signals in the main window.
• Rendering depth of signals (=0 – the whole history) – the number of bars to draw signals (=0 – the whole history)./li>
• the Probability Value for filtering late signals (Freq.signals) – the value of the probability above which late signals will be filtered out (only for Frequent signals).
• Position of the panel to display the probability – position of the panel with probability diagrams:
• Left-Up – Top left
• Left-Down – Bottom left
• Right-Up – Top right
• Right-Down – Bottom right
• Color of UP-trend signal – color of the Up-signal
• Color of DOWN-trend signal – color of the Down signal

• Frequent signals (by switching Fast HMA) – frequent signals for switching fast HMA to slow HMA.
• Rare signals (by switching Slow HMA)) – rare signals for switching slow HMA.

• Left-Up – Top left
• Left-Down – Bottom left
• Right-Up – Top right
• Right-Down – Bottom right

Messages/Sounds – text and sound settings

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