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The expert analyzer will be useful for traders who trade at the intersection of the moving averages, as it evaluates the probabilities, levels and time before the intersection of simple moving averages (SMA). For a given time interval in the future, the Expert calculates the following values

  • probabilities of signals crossing the fast and slow moving averages, i.e. probabilities of the first two buy/sell signals
  • probabilities of the relative positionof the instrument price and the moving averages at the end of the period
  • average values of the priceat which the moving averages intersect
  • average values of profit or loss at the end of the period, if positions are opened on crossing signals
  • trend during the period
  • average values of the maximum and minimum pricesthat can be reached during the period under review

In addition, the Expert Advisor provides modes that display examples of possible price trajectories and areas where buy and sell signals are formed. The calculation method is simulation modeling. The basic model is the Black-Scholes model (it assumes the random nature of the price movement and the lognormal distribution of the increments in the price of the instrument). In contrast to the classical Black-Scholes model, the simulation uses variable volatility and variable drift of a random process, which are determined by a special original method.

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  • Period (bars) – the number of bars until the end of the forecast period
  • Slow Moving Period – the period of the slow simple moving average, limit: no more than 10*Period
  • Fast Moving Period-the period of the fast simple moving average, limit: no more than 10*Period
  • Ntraject – the number of trajectories modeled for calculating probabilities
  • distance to the comment from the left – the distance from the left edge of the screen to the comment in pixels
  • distance to the comment from the top – the distance from the top edge of the screen to the comment in pixels
  • Show All Signals-sets / cancels the display mode for all signals received during simulation
  • Show Trajectories-sets / cancels the display mode for example price trajectories

The Expert Advisor works on any currency pair and any frame.

The number of simulated Ntraject trajectories is from 10,000 to 100,000. The Expert Advisor‘s working time is proportional to this parameter.

It is not recommended to set the forecast periods too long (more than 200 bars) or too short (less than 12 bars). For example, instead of a period of 1440 bars on a minute frame, it is better to set a period of 24 on the hourly chart or 96 on the 15-minute frame.

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Published

24 October 2016

Updated

Current Version

1.0

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