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The utility refers to probabilistic analysis tools, in particular the Monte Carlo method.

The Monte Carlo method is defined as the modeling of processes in order to evaluate their probabilistic characteristics and compare them to
the problem being solved.

As a simulation, a tick model is used, followed by conversion to a candle view, as a model as
close as possible to the real market process.

The utility generates a stream of a random tick sequence until a result with the best similarity to the original is obtained
, and prolongs this stream as the expected further development of events.

The basis of this method of forecasting is the synchronization of the distributions of the generated variant and the original sample.

The control is carried out using a single button, which has several states:

  • Pause-the utility is idle, pressing the button starts the process and puts the utility in the “Seek” state.
  • Seek-the utility works and searches for the most suitable option, clicking on the button puts the utility in the state
    “Pause”.
  • Satisfactory or Wonderfully – the result of matching the generated version and the original, by clicking on
    the button starts the continuation of the process and puts the utility in the “Seek” state.
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  • Candles – the number of candles taken from the chart, as a reference area.
  • Forecast – the size of the forecast as a percentage of the total volume of the reference section of the chart.
  • Similarity-the similarity criterion, as the number of candles as a percentage of the original number of candles, is not allowed to
    falling out of the channel of reconciliation at closing prices.
  • Channel – the width of the reconciliation channel in standard deviations, as the lower and upper bounds of unacceptable price drops
    closures.
  • Scale-a multiplier for the tick size that regulates the generation amplitude.
  • Norm-volume normalizer, this parameter slightly reduces the quality of modeling, but significantly speeds up the process
    search for options:
    • for a value equal to 0, normalization is not performed.
    • for values over 500-normalization is performed relative to the total value of all columns of the reference volume.
      a section of candles.
    • for values in the range from 10 to 200-normalization is performed relative to the average value of the volume column of the reference
      a section of candles.
    • for values in the range from 200 to 500-normalization is performed relative to the maximum volume column from the reference
      a section of candles.
  • Shift-offset to the history, allows you to evaluate and adjust the quality of forecasts based on an existing history.
  • Rand-dimension of the pseudo-random number generator.
  • Alerts – a method of notification when the search for options is completed.
  • Visible-displays the process, always or only at the end of the search for options.
  • Pinpoints-enables / disables the use of control points when comparing the generated variant and the reference one
    part of the graph.
  • Liquidity-enables / disables compliance with the daily tick activity pattern for the predicted candlesticks.
  • Volumes – the volume scale used in calculations, tick or real.
  • for a value equal to 0, normalization is not performed.
  • for values over 500-normalization is performed relative to the total value of all columns of the reference volume.
    a section of candles.
  • for values in the range from 10 to 200-normalization is performed relative to the average value of the volume column of the reference
    a section of candles.
  • for values in the range from 200 to 500-normalization is performed relative to the maximum volume column from the reference
    a section of candles.

The other variables are related to the color settings, and their purpose is clear from their name.

  • In the strategy tester, set the “Every Tick” mode.
  • Adjust the rate of incoming ticks to approximately no more than one tick per second.
  • Put the utility in the “Seek” state and expect the result as a forecast in the form of yellow candles.
  • Also use the input variable “Shift” according to its purpose.

  • Do not take the forecast as the ultimate truth.
  • You should also not focus on the forecast candlesticks as an already established fact.
  • Pay attention mainly to the direction of the forecast, as well as the intensity of this direction.
  • Additionally, perform a visual reconciliation of the generated version and the candle area taken as a reference.
  • Use the utility only as an auxiliary tool in conjunction with your main trading strategy.

Our Useful Features & Services

Published

27 September 2018

Updated

02 December 2020

Current Version

2.4

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